The RoanokeSlant

This file is a US personal journal of commentary of examples of the Roanoke Times and Liberal Media Slant...... lbhagen@aol.com

Saturday, August 27, 2016

Pathetic Weather And Climate Modeling And Outlandish Predictions

There are hundreds of millions of dollars spent each year on Weather and Climate Modeling.

Except for nuclear weapons design, physics research and mineral exploration, Weather and Climate are the greatest “investment” in super-computers and the massive infrastructure surrounding them.

The results are incredibly disappointing and in many cases malfeasance of taxpayer money!

Super-computers are not to blame. They perform massive operations per second with flawless accuracy.

Clearly the two other elements of the equations are the programs they are running and data they are fed.

Aye – there is the rub! People with all their flaws, biases, egos, agendas and limitations writing programs and inputting data and in many cases trying to obtain a predefined outcome.

Something about: garbage in = garbage out.

Just look at the pathetic weather models for the current Tropical Storm Invest 99-L.

Over a dozen weather models predicting land-fall over an 870 mile shoreline.

How can this be called a professional prediction?

How can this be of any use to anyone?

Do we pay these people? Do we actually pay these people?

Then look at the pathetic Man-made Global Warming AGW Models.

The average of 102 Climate Models that are four-times (4X) off the measured “current” temperature (0.8 vs. 0.2 degrees).

Not one model reflects the recent and current temperature!

And to think that these are the models that Obama is using to totally restructure our National Energy Systems.

What could possibly go wrong with that so-called plan?

Our president and secretary of state pronounce that, based on these models of “man-made” global warming (as if there’s never been the natural kind – the only kind so far) that AGW is more dangerous than those who have declared war upon us and are working diligently to kill as many of us and our friends as they can.

As an interesting highlight reflect on the difference between the doomsday apocalyptic projections by the AGW-Alarmists about today’s effects of so-called man-made CO2 and global warming and reality:

No Atlantic Hurricanes since Wilma in 2005

No Gulf Hurricanes since Ingrid 2013

No Major Hurricane Has Made Landfall In the U.S. In More Than 9 Years -- and That's a New Record

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/major-hurricane-us-landfall-drought-study

Don’t see that highlighted in the Pravda Press do we?

WSJ: 8-31-2016: How the Exxon Case Unraveled

New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman’s investigation of Exxon Mobil for climate sins has collapsed due to its own willful dishonesty. The posse of state AGs he pretended to assemble never really materialized. Now his few allies are melting away: Massachusetts has suspended its investigation. California apparently never opened one.

It becomes clear that investigators simply don’t know what a climate model is.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-exxon-case-unraveled-1472598472

The whole purpose of a climate model is to estimate warming from a given input of CO2. In its most recent report, issued in 2013, the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assumes a doubling of atmospheric CO2 and predicts warming of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius—i.e., an uncertainty of output, not input.

What’s more, this represents an increase in uncertainty over its 2007 report (when the range was 2.0 to 4.5 degrees). In fact, the IPCC’s new estimate is now identical to Exxon’s 1977 estimate and the 1979 estimate of the U.S. National Research Council.

In other words, on the crucial question, the help we’re getting from climate models has not improved in 40 years and has been going backward of late.

For bonus insight, ask yourself why we still rely on computer simulations at all, rather than empirical study of climate—even though we’ve been burning fossil fuels for 200 years and recording temperatures even longer.

For professional views of Earth Science peruse:

https://www.heartland.org/

http://www.sepp.org/

“Nothing to Fear” at Amazon: http://amzn.to/1miBhXy

Obama’s National Security Strategy: Terrorism Equivalent To AGW

http://roanokeslant.blogspot.com/2015/02/obamas-national-security-strategy-one.html

Man-made Global Warming or Mother Nature's Normal Climate?

http://roanokeslant.blogspot.com/2015/01/man-made-global-warming-or-mother.html

Global Warming Meets Mother Nature

http://roanokeslant.blogspot.com/2014/01/global-warming-meets-mother-nature.html

AGW Global Warming Alarmism -- It's All About Wealth Redistribution

http://roanokeslant.blogspot.com/2016/04/agw-global-warming-alarmism-its-all.html

posted by Lars Hagen # 7:50 AM

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