WASHINGTON
— A president desperate to change the subject and a secretary of state desperate
to make a name for himself have struck an “interim” nuclear agreement with Iran.
France called it a “sucker’s deal.” France was being
charitable.
The
only reason Iran has come to the table after a decade of contemptuous
stonewalling is that economic sanctions have cut so deeply — Iran’s currency has
collapsed, inflation is rampant — that the regime fears a threat to its very
survival.
Nothing
else could move it to negotiate. Regime survival is the only thing the mullahs
value above nuclear weapons. And yet precisely at the point of maximum leverage,
President Obama is offering relief in a deal that is absurdly asymmetric: The
West will weaken sanctions in exchange for cosmetic changes that do absolutely
nothing to weaken Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.
Don’t
worry, we are assured. This is only an interim six-month agreement to “build
confidence” until we reach a final one. But this makes no sense. If at this
point of maximum economic pressure we can’t get Iran to accept a final deal that
shuts down its nuclear program, how in God’s name do we expect to get such a
deal when we have radically reduced that pressure?
A
bizarre negotiating tactic. And the content of the deal is even worse. It’s a
rescue package for the mullahs.
It
widens permissible trade in oil, gold and auto parts. It releases frozen Iranian
assets, increasing Iran’s foreign-exchange reserves by 25 percent while doubling
its fully accessible foreign-exchange reserves. Such a massive infusion of cash
would be a godsend for its staggering economy, lowering inflation, reducing
shortages and halting the country’s growing demoralization. The deal is already
changing economic expectations. Foreign oil and other interests are reportedly
preparing to reopen negotiations for a resumption of trade in anticipation of
the full lifting of sanctions.
And
yet this deal does nothing of the sort. Nothing. It leaves Iran’s nuclear
infrastructure intact. Iran keeps every one of its 19,000 centrifuges – yes,
19,000 – including 3,000 second-generation machines that produce enriched
uranium at five times the rate.
Yet
that’s exactly what we’re doing with Iran. It deactivates its 20 percent
enriched uranium, which besides being chemically reversible, is quickly
replaceable because Iran retains its 3.5 percent uranium, which can be enriched
to 20 percent in less than a month.
The
point is blindingly simple. Unless you dismantle the centrifuges and prevent the
manufacture of new ones, Iran will be perpetually just a few months away from
going nuclear.
Don’t
worry, we are assured. The sanctions relief is reversible. Nonsense. It was
extraordinarily difficult to cobble together the current sanctions. It took
years of overcoming Russian, Chinese and Indian recalcitrance, together with
foot-dragging from Europeans making a pretty penny from Iran.
The
mullahs are eager for this interim agreement with its immediate yield of
political and economic relief.
